If you’ve ever done any sports betting, or any betting, you know that the spread (line) between the teams playing rarely stays the same at the opening line. There’s a reason for this, one which you can potentially reap the rewards from by understanding how to read into line movements. If you’ve never seen a line, you can find some great online betting odds at Betphoenix.ag.
But first, what’s behind a line moving? As soon as the line goes up, the betting public starts making bets on their favorite team. As a result, the sportsbooks move the line either up or down, aiming to balance the action on both sides with the intent of balancing the books and not having too much risk on one side. These changes in the spread are what are called “line movements.”
Apart from the basic reason of balancing the risk, line movements happen due to many other reasons and having a keen eye for when the line moves with the understanding of why, is the mark of a professional gambler. Below are some of the insider reasons of why a line moves and how you can use this knowledge to make a more informed bet.
Insider’s Guide on Line Movements and How To Read Them
Smart Money Line Movements
It’s a rare occasion the public bets force a sportsbook to move the line in a big way. This happens because most of these bets come in progressively; however, if for example a game opens at -3, and then it rapidly moves by a point or two (up or down) within a couple of hours of it opening then you can reasonably assume that there’s “smart money” being bet on that game. If the line moves “up” to -4 or -5, for example, this shows there’s plenty of money being bet on the favorite; on the other hand, if the line moves “down,” say to -2 or -1 then it could indicate the money is being bet on the underdog.
As a rule of thumb, you should always, always, always do your research and compare lines between different sportsbooks before you place a bet. But, when you notice these sharp movements it’s usually an indication of where the smart money is going, and as the sharps are many times correct you might want to consider placing a quick bet.
Public Money Line Movements
When the line moves slowly, it’s often because of the public money. When a line opens at -3 and then takes some time to move to -3.5 and then to -4 or -4.5 some days later, that’s a clear indication of public money betting on the favorite. In general, the public tends to bet on the favorite team and this is the reason why the line moves slowly. In placing a bet, you should be aware that the public and sharp bettors are often placing bets on opposite teams, but not always. There are times that they’re betting on the same side, so pay careful attention when making a decision.
Reverse Line Movements
This type of line movement is often attributed to smart money, where the line is moving contrary to what is logically expected to happen. Let’s say Team A opens at -4 and is getting most of the public money bets but the line moves down to -3 or -1; this means that a reverse line movement just happened. On occasions, it may be because the sportsbook is balancing the risk on both sides, but for the most part such a movement is due to the smart money bettors taking the underdog.
In summary, line movements happen because the sportsbooks are balancing the risk on any one game; however, it’s important to know that line movements are just one of the aspects of handicapping games, which means that you should consider other handicapping analysis tools such as the betting trends and player injuries to get an edge over the bookies.
